Recurring commissions don't add up the way one-off commissions do. Each new referral stacks on top of the last, but cancellations quietly pull the total back down - so your income climbs toward a ceiling instead of growing forever. This works out where that ceiling sits.
Recurring Affiliate Income Calculator
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5 new referrals a month, each paying $10.20/month, with 5% cancelling monthly: by month 12 you have about 46 active referrals paying $468.83/month, and you've earned $3,332.18 in total. Keep that pace up indefinitely and monthly income settles around $1,020 - not higher, because at that point cancellations exactly cancel out new signups. Each individual referral is worth about $204 over an average 20-month lifetime.
The ceiling is the part people miss
The intuition with recurring commissions is that income grows forever, because every referral keeps paying. It doesn't - and the reason is arithmetic rather than pessimism. If you add 5 referrals a month and 5% of your base cancels each month, then once your base reaches 100 you're losing 5 a month and gaining 5 a month. Net growth is zero. Your income has hit its ceiling, and the only ways past it are more referrals per month or lower churn.
That ceiling - new referrals divided by churn rate - is the single most useful number this calculator produces, because it tells you what your current pace is actually worth long term. Halving churn from 5% to 2.5% doubles the ceiling without you referring a single extra person, which is why the quality of your referrals matters as much as the quantity.
Step-by-step guide
- Enter the commission you receive per month, not per sale. For a percentage-based program, multiply the plan price by your commission rate - a $17/month plan at 60% is $10.20/month.
- Estimate churn honestly, and expect it to be higher than you'd like. Churn on low-priced subscriptions referred through content is often meaningfully higher than the vendor's overall average, because free-trial and impulse signups cancel more readily than customers who arrived with intent.
- Read the ceiling first, the month-12 figure second. The month-12 number depends on how long you've been going; the ceiling tells you whether the pace is worth continuing at all.
- Test the two levers separately. Double the referrals, then instead halve the churn. Both double the ceiling - so choose whichever is actually achievable for you.
Common mistakes
Where this model shows up in practice: systeme.io
Affiliate disclosure: the links in this section are affiliate links. If you sign up through one, this site may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.
systeme.io is an all-in-one platform for running an online business - and it's a useful example here for two reasons. Its own affiliate program is a textbook case of the recurring structure this calculator models, and the platform itself is the kind of tool the people reading a page like this tend to need: if you're already earning from ads or affiliate links, the natural next step is usually building an email list and selling something of your own.
What's actually included
Rather than charging separately per feature, everything below is available on every plan - including the permanently free one. Paid tiers raise the limits (contacts, funnels, courses), not the feature set:
| Area | What you get |
|---|---|
| Funnels & pages | Sales funnel builder, landing pages, 1-click upsells, checkout |
| Email marketing | Unlimited sends on all plans, campaigns, automation workflows |
| Courses & community | Online course hosting, online communities, unlimited students |
| Site & content | Website and blog builder, custom domain support |
| Selling | Physical products, creator store, 0% transaction fees |
| Growth tools | Affiliate program management, CRM pipelines, booking calendar, SMS |
The plans
| Plan | Price | Contacts | Notable |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free | $0 | 2,000 | 3 funnels, 1 course, 1 blog, 1 affiliate program - no card, no expiry |
| Startup | $17/mo | 5,000 | Unlimited funnels, 5 courses |
| Webinar | $47/mo | 10,000 | Adds automated (evergreen) webinars |
| Unlimited | $97/mo | Unlimited | Sub-accounts, free migration service |
Annual billing works out to roughly two months free. For context on the pricing: assembling an equivalent stack from separate specialist tools - a funnel builder, an email platform, a course host, and affiliate software - commonly runs well over $200/month before you've done the work of connecting them.
The affiliate program pays a 60% recurring commission for as long as a referral stays subscribed, with lifetime attribution instead of a 30-day cookie. On the $17/month plan that's about $10.20 per referral per month - the figure loaded by default above. Joining is free, needs no application, and doesn't require being a paying customer, which makes it a practical program to test the numbers in this calculator against.
Worth knowing before you commit
Two honest limitations on the platform side: the course tools are basic compared with dedicated course platforms (no quizzes, assignments, or certificates), and the interface and templates are functional rather than polished. If a sophisticated learning experience is central to your business, a specialist tool may serve you better.
And on the affiliate side, three details that materially change the projection above: free-plan signups earn nothing - only paid upgrades do, so count expected paying customers in the "new referrals" field; attribution is last-click, so another affiliate's link clicked later can take the credit; and payouts run monthly with a $30 minimum, released after the refund window closes.
Explore systeme.io (free plan, no card required) →
Frequently asked questions
What churn rate should I use if I don't know mine?
Model a range rather than picking one figure - running the calculation at 3%, 5% and 10% shows you how sensitive your income is to churn, which is more useful than a single false-precision number. Churn varies with price point, how well the product fits the referral's actual need, and whether they arrived ready to buy or on impulse.
Why does my income stop growing?
Because at the ceiling, the number of referrals cancelling each month equals the number you're adding. New referrals divided by churn rate gives you the active base you converge on - at 5 a month and 5% churn, that's 100 referrals and no further growth. Passing it requires referring more people each month or reducing churn.
Is recurring commission better than a large one-off payment?
Compare lifetime values rather than headline figures. A recurring program paying $10/month at 5% churn is worth about $200 per referral - more than a one-off $150 commission, but it takes 20 months to arrive, and you carry the risk that the program changes terms in the meantime. Cash sooner has real value; so does income that keeps arriving. Neither is automatically better.
Should I promote several recurring programs at once?
Diversifying reduces the risk of one program's policy change wiping out your income, which is a genuine concern with recurring models where your whole base sits with a single vendor. The tradeoff is that recommending tools you don't actually use well enough to vouch for damages the trust that made your audience worth anything - so spread across programs you can honestly stand behind, not just across programs that pay.
Does this account for referrals upgrading to a higher plan?
Not directly - it uses one commission figure for every referral. If a share of yours upgrade, use a blended average commission instead of the entry-plan figure. The simplest approach is to run the calculation once for each plan tier at your expected split, then add the results.
Is recurring affiliate income taxable?
Generally yes, as business or self-employment income in most jurisdictions, and it's taxable in the period you receive it rather than when the referral first signed up. The figures here are gross commission before tax and expenses - worth confirming the specifics locally once the amounts become meaningful.
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